From Hazel to Hugo, Floyd to Florence, North Carolina has a very long history of devastating storms. And many in the mountains are still recovering from Helene, the costliest one to ever strike the Tar Heel state.

So, what do the numbers look like this year? Early outlooks from hurricane experts generally call for:

• 11 to 15 named storms
• 4 to 7 hurricanes
• 2 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

That compares to the long-term seasonal average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. What we don’t know is how many of these storms will directly impact North Carolina or even the United States.

Why activity could be lower

The primary reason fewer storms are forecast is a developing El Niño. El Niño is a warming trend of ocean water off the coast of Peru, and when it strengthens, it tends to increase upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic basin. That extra wind shear often disrupts the structure of developing tropical systems, making it harder for storms to form and intensify, especially later in the season.

The wildcard: very warm ocean water

It’s important to note, even in a quieter season, storms that do form can still quickly become dangerous. Atlantic sea surface temperatures and deep-ocean heat content are high and will likely remain so through autumn. Warm water (above 82 degrees) is the key fuel source for tropical systems, and when the heat extends deeper below the surface, it can help storms maintain or increase strength, even if winds churn up cooler water at the surface. That can raise the odds of rapid intensification, when a storm strengthens much faster than normal, just like Helene did in September 2024. This sometimes happens very close to land, leaving less time to prepare. Warm water in the Gulf, western Caribbean, and western Atlantic could also allow storms to form before the official June 1 start.

Other factors that can steer the season

Beyond El Niño and ocean temperatures, several patterns can influence where storms form and where they track:

• Bermuda High position and strength can guide storms toward the Caribbean, Gulf, or U.S. East Coast — or keep them out to sea.
• Saharan dust can suppress storm development by drying the atmosphere and reducing thunderstorm activity.
• Tropical wave patterns coming off Africa can either enhance or limit the number of storms that get started.

Be prepared

A lower storm count does not guarantee fewer impacts — 
a “quiet” season doesn’t necessarily mean “safe.” Some seasons with fewer storms have still produced devastating hurricanes. 1992 is a classic example, when Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic damage despite a relatively quiet overall season.

What to do now:

• Review hurricane plans and evacuation routes;
• Check insurance and important documents;
• Restock emergency supplies and medications;
• Monitor forecasts as the season approaches; and
• After the storm, monitor local news and weather forecasts.