Christmas is about anticipation. Trimming the tree, gifts, family, food and … snow? Well, maybe not that last one. At least not very often.

The official National Weather Service definition is a location having at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Christmas Day. Given that, the chance for a white Christmas in most Tarheel towns is about as likely as a snowball surviving a July 4th picnic. In fact, the 30-year running average for a snowy celebration is darn near zero for most of coastal North Carolina and only 1 or 2% across the Piedmont. Even in the High Country, the probability rests at less than 20% in the larger towns, although Mount Mitchell, the highest point east of the Rockies, has a healthier 43% chance.

With a warmer-than-average winter predicted in the Southeast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, odds aren’t looking any better this year. But before you trade in your sled for a tennis racket, know that there are exceptions.

For most of North Carolina, dreams of a white Christmas rarely come true. But just what is a “white Christmas”?

If we’re just a tiny bit more generous than the rigid white Christmas definition and go with any accumulation of snow at any point on Christmas Day, the odds are considerably better.
For example, in Asheville, dating back to 1869, there has been at least a dusting 43 times. In Charlotte, a technical white Christmas has only occurred twice since 1878, but some snow has fallen 11 times. In the Triangle, dating back to 1887, there has been snow on 16 occasions, while in the Triad, snow has been observed 18 times in the past 122 years.

And it was not that long ago when snow covered the entire state on the holiday.
Snow began on early Christmas Day 2010 in the mountains and then pushed east to cover the Piedmont during the afternoon. By late Christmas night, all 100 counties in the state had snow on the ground or falling from the sky and in the east, it continued to fall much of the next day.
The Christmas 2010 snow may have been the most widespread, but it was a dusting compared to the holiday blanket that covered the Coastal Plain and beaches in 1989. This was a true meteorological Christmas miracle!

Just after the winter Solstice, an Arctic outbreak brought below-freezing temperatures to all of North Carolina, with much of the state stuck in the teens. Late in the evening on Dec. 22, snow began falling along the southern coast and spread north through the Outer Banks, not ending for nearly 36 hours. By the time it did, 20 inches had accumulated in Brunswick County, and more than 15 inches covered Wilmington and the Crystal Coast. More than a foot of snow fell in Nags Head where it drifted eight feet high.

So, if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, just remember there’s always a chance. As Corey Davis, assistant North Carolina state climatologist often tells people, “In most of North Carolina, the odds are better than a once-in-a-lifetime event, but they’re really like a once-in-a-childhood event.